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The situation

 

An incursion of FMD into a country that is normally free results in a very large economic impact.

The indirect costs associated with business interruptions and lost of export markets are often much larger than the direct costs of disease control. 

 

 

The tool, Impact Calculator

 

The FMD Impact Calculator was developed by a team at the Royal Veterinary College* in collaboration with EuFMD.  

It was created for the rapid assessment of the potential impact of an FMD outbreak in a previously FMD-free country.

 

It uses readily available data to estimate the direct costs of an outbreak:

  • Country data
  • Animal population and production data

  • Data on the outbreak scenario and response

  • Data on staff and equipment needed to control the outbreak

 

A decision tree assists the user to analyze three different control strategies: 

 

  • stamping out

  • vaccination

  • stamping out plus vaccination

 

A qualitative risk matrix is used to consider the likelihood and consequences of other impacts, namely political, trade, tourism and social.

 

 

*João Afonso, Theodore Knight-Jones, Nicholas Lyons, Jonathan Rushton.