The situation


An incursion of FMD into a country that is normally free results in a very large economic impact.

The indirect costs associated with business interruptions and lost of export markets are often much larger than the direct costs of disease control. 



The tool: Impact Calculator


The FMD Impact Calculator was developed by a team at the Royal Veterinary College* in collaboration with EuFMD.  

It was created for the rapid assessment of the potential impact of an FMD outbreak in a previously FMD-free country.


It uses readily available data to estimate the direct costs of an outbreak:

  • Country data
  • Animal population and production data

  • Data on the outbreak scenario and response

  • Data on staff and equipment needed to control the outbreak


A decision tree assists the user to analyze three different control strategies: 


  • stamping out

  • vaccination

  • stamping out plus vaccination


A qualitative risk matrix is used to consider the likelihood and consequences of other impacts, namely political, trade, tourism and social.



*João Afonso, Theodore Knight-Jones, Nicholas Lyons, Jonathan Rushton.