Image by Nana Smirnova
 

VADEMOS

Vaccine Demand Estimation Model - FMD

VADEMOS is a decision-support tool intended to be used to estimate current and future vaccine dose demand for Foot-and-Mouth disease (FMD) at national, regional and global levels. It aims to bridge the gap between FMD vaccine demand and vaccine production/supply in endemic countries.

It is a stochastic quantitative model which uses predictors of vaccine dose demand such as livestock population growth forecast, disease control policy related to projected FMD Progressive Control Pathway (PCP) stage, vaccination schedule and outbreak forecasting.

 

The model quantifies prophylactic vaccination and emergency vaccination. Prophylactic vaccination is the vaccine doses needed to cover the livestock population routinely as part of a country’s FMD control policy. Emergency vaccination is the number of vaccine doses required to vaccinate at risk animals surrounding outbreaks.

PCP stages are used as a proxy for FMD control policy. Inputs relating to the PCP stages are the result of an expert elicitation study conducted by the EuFMD in 2020/21. The PCP projections are from the roadmap meetings held under the GF-TADs with in-country representatives.

Data were collected from a variety of sources including FAOSTAT, OIE WAHIS and national statistical institutes.

 

The model has been written in R language and is presented via the R Shiny interface. It runs for 2001 iterations on variability dimension and 101 iterations on uncertainty dimension. The tool is intended to be flexible to country requirements, and therefore the input values can be adjusted to allow for variation with in-country data.

VA00.png

VADEMOS interface. Snapshot of the input parameter panel.

Results are presented as shown in the example below in Figure 2. Two graphs are presented, the one on the left highlighting vaccine dose quantity through time (duration is specified by the user on the parameter page) with a confidence interval shaded in grey. The second graph shows the total vaccine dose distribution, which, for this scenario, approximates to normal. A chart displaying the values for each years routine, emergency and total vaccine numbers are also provided which can easily be copied to Excel. 

VA01.png

Example of results generated by the model.

Further details on the methodology behind VADEMOS will be added to this page soon. If you have any comments or would like to know more details, please don’t hesitate to contact us at eufmd@fao.org

 

This tool is a simulation model that has been developed by the EuFMD under its 2019-2021 workplan as part of Pillar III, Component 3.4.